With just days to go before the upcoming German federal election, the latest ZDF Politbarometer poll indicates that the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) have lost some support while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues to gain ground.
The survey, conducted by the Research Group Elections, shows the Union down two percentage points compared to the previous week, now standing at 28 percent.
Despite this drop, the CDU/CSU is still polling higher than in the 2021 Bundestag election, when it recorded its worst result in history with 24.2 percent. However, if the current figures hold, the bloc would still register its second-worst performance despite winning the most seats.
In contrast, the AfD is set to record its best-ever result in a national election, currently estimated to rake in 21 percent of the vote, roughly double the 10.4 percent it amassed last time out.
Germany, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll:
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) February 20, 2025
CDU/CSU-EPP: 28% (-2)
AfD-ESN: 21% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 16%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 14%
LINKE-LEFT: 8% (+1)
FDP-RE: 5% (+1)
BSW-NI: 5% (+1)
+/- vs. 11-13 February 2025
Fieldwork: 19-20 February 2025
Sample size: 1,349
➤ https://t.co/obOCVirbpF pic.twitter.com/9Vb4BD4mfR
In fact, both political extremes are expected to benefit from antipathy toward those most recently in power with the Left also enjoying an electoral surge — now polling at 8 percent and comfortably away from the 5 percent threshold parties must cross in order to receive a proportional share of seats in the Bundestag.
That threshold will be a cause for concern for the Free Democrats (FDP) — most recently in coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens before their resignation from the government late last year led to Chancellor Olaf Scholz calling the election.
Similarly, the left nationalists in the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) could find themselves biting their nails on election night with polls suggesting they too are teetering on the edge of reaching the magic number of 5 percent.
The future of the FDP and BSW could significantly influence the composition of the next government with the CDU/CSU unlikely to be able to govern effectively with any other party but perhaps the AfD should all major parties enter the legislature in Berlin.
Strong reservations have already been expressed by both parties about working together with the CDU’s candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, recently insisting the firewall surrounding the AfD remains firmly in place after the furor that occurred when the CDU relied on AfD votes to pass a motion in favor of a more restrictive immigration policy last month.
The upcoming election is taking place amid a shifting political landscape in Germany. The most recent ruling coalition of the SPD, Greens, and FDP, known as the “traffic light coalition,” has faced growing discontent over economic concerns, immigration policies, and energy transition challenges after shunning nuclear power.
🇩🇪‼️ Young German woman explains why voters are turning to the AfD
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) February 10, 2025
"I’m afraid to travel by train, afraid to go into town, afraid to do anything in public. And they talk about people being afraid of the AfD. The AfD has done nothing to anyone, unlike other people." pic.twitter.com/hYlQVKXb1Q
The AfD’s rise has been particularly notable in eastern Germany, where it has become a dominant force in several states.
It has further been boosted by the high-profile endorsement of U.S. billionaire Elon Musk, who gave its co-leader Alice Weidel a platform in an X Spaces interview last month to offer her views on Germany’s recent economic and social plight away from scrutiny by the mainstream media.
The party has enjoyed sizeable multi-million-pound donations ahead of this election as it positions itself as an alternative to the legacy parties of the SPD and CDU, which it claims has governed Germany into the ground through open-door mass immigration, overzealous regulation, and a narrow-minded energy policy.