Suddenly it is all too clear. There is very little that binds together the different sections of what used to be called the Western world. The ascendancy of the 2025 Trump Presidency has crystallised the trend towards the fragmentation of global westernism. America looks inward and an all too ignored Europe knows that its fragility and weakness stands exposed.
The current conflict between Europe and America is not reducible to contrasting approaches towards Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Nor is this simply a conflict over tariffs and trade. Yes, we see the forceful assertion of American national interest but the dynamic set in play is not merely the latest version of the usual competitive positioning between different powers.
The recent revelation of the supposedly secret conversation between senior American top administration officials on Signal showed that what was at issue was not merely an ordinary security breach. The manner of the revelation and the attitudes expressed by the participants in the conversation indicated that what used to be known as the West, or the Western Alliance, has become emptied of any substantive content. The tone of contempt that the participants directed towards Europe and Europeans served as testimony to a serious cultural rupture between the two continents. No doubt sections of the European elites feel similarly towards their ‘uncouth’ American cousins in the Trump Administration.
It is difficult to predict how the unfolding drama will play out or whether it will reach the stage of a Western familicide. There must still be a few cool heads left and the geopolitical rupture between the two continents runs in parallel with a fundamental cultural conflict within all sections of the western world. However, the outcome of the clash between Europe and America will not be entirely determined by the main protagonists. There are global powerful forces at work leading to the intensification of economic and political rivalries. The strategic positioning that this induces heralds a new era of realpolitik—one where the main players are less and less likely to be inhibited about the open projection of military power. And of course there is China, Russia and India ready to grasp any opportunity provided by the fallout from the All-Western showdown.
What’s at issue is not merely the detachment of the U.S. from Europe but a break from the post World War II conventions that provided the framework for the conduct of intra-Western relations. NATO has long been on life support. Now Washington has decided to call for the termination of further treatment.
It is important to note that Trump’s apparent indifference to the fate of NATO and his disinclination to continue to treat Europe as a serious partner has been a long time coming. The outlines of the current situation were already in play under the purview of the Biden Administration during the weeks leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
In effect, during the months leading up to Russia’s invasion, European leaders were reduced to the role of extras. It was the U.S. and Russia, Biden and Putin, who were the main players. It was they who were engaging in significant diplomatic manoeuvres, not the leaders of France or Germany. So, when Washington unilaterally decided to send an extra 3,000 troops to Poland and Romania in February 2022, it made no pretense of consulting with the European Union.
A New York Times headline from January 2022 captured the sidelining of the EU well: ‘US and Russia will discuss European security, but without Europeans.’ Its report stated:
The inescapable fact is that when the United States and Russia sit down in Genevaon Monday to discuss Ukraine and European security, Europeans will not be there. And when NATO sits down with Russia on Wednesday, the European Union as an institution will not be there—although 21 states are members of both groupings.
At the time, the NYT reported that these bilateral talks had revived “old fears that the two Cold War powers will forge a deal on their own.” The EU’s former foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, expressed concerns earlier about the high-handed approach of the U.S. and Russia. “We are no longer in the Yalta times when the great powers met in 1945 to divvy up postwar Europe.” he said. The European Union “cannot be a spectator,” he continued, while the United States, NATO, and Russia discuss European security. But as the invasion in Ukraine got underway, that is precisely what Europe was—a spectator.
These days the EU rarely gets invited inside the theatre and struggles to even achieve the status of a spectator.
There is something truly sad about the inability of the European elites to face up to contemporary realities. Take this week’s statement by the former prime minister of the Netherlands and now NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. He boasted to an audience in Warsaw that
NATO Allies represent half of the world’s economic and military might. Two continents, 32 nations, and one billion people.
Together in NATO, Europe and North America are unbeatable.
Today and in the future.So to our one billion people I say this.
Be assured.
The transatlantic bond is strong.
And, yes, we will make NATO a stronger, fairer, and more lethal Alliance.
That is how we all stay safe in a more dangerous world.
A strong transatlantic bond? Seriously?
Rutte’s Panglossian statement serves as a sad reminder of the persistence of the chronic condition of self-delusion afflicting the unimaginative political overlords of the EU. It indicates that, at least on the European side of the Atlantic, the governing elites continue to struggle to face reality and avoid preparing their nations to deal with the challenges posed by the unfolding world order.
Living on borrowed time
It is evident that for a long time, the Western Alliance has been living on borrowed time. The Cold War between the free and the totalitarian world provided the West with unprecedented cohesion. But this was a cohesion that was based on the moral superiority enjoyed in relation to the deeply flawed Soviet Union. This was a negative form of moral authority based on the contrast with a morally inferior political system. Once the Soviet Union disintegrated and the Cold War ended, the West had to find the moral resources within itself to gain legitimacy.
That the end of the Cold War in 1991 would turn out to be a mixed blessing was recognized at the time by astute observers. No sooner did the Cold War come to an end before a sense of nostalgia for the certainties and moral clarity provided by a world divided between good and evil kicked in. The former diplomat and influential economist John K. Galbraith wrote that the “hard intruding fact is that in the last 45 years, just short of a half-century, no one has been killed, accidents apart, in a conflict between the rich and relatively affluent industrial countries of the globe, this being true as between the capitalist … and those which have characterised themselves as communist.” Galbraith’s lament for the good old days of the Cold War were echoed in the Financial Times: the “West’s relief at ending the Cold War is history. It has been superseded by the fears of political instability and an awareness that integrating eastern Europe, not to mention the Soviet Union into the world economy poses difficulties of a hitherto unimagined complexity.”
“Why We Will Soon Miss The Cold War” was the title of an influential essay written by the international relations scholar John J. Mearsheimer in The Atlantic in August 1990. Arguably the most influential advocate of the realist school of international relations, Mearsheimer understood that the Cold War had merely suppressed and not resolved some of the conflicts that haunted the European continent in the previous era. He noted:
We may, however, wake up one day lamenting the loss of the order that the Cold War gave to the anarchy of international relations. For untamed anarchy is what Europe knew in the forty-five years of this century before the Cold War, and untamed anarchy—Hobbes’s war of all against all—is a prime cause of armed conflict. Those who think that armed conflicts among the European states are now out of the question, that the two world wars burned all the war out of Europe, are projecting unwarranted optimism onto the future. The theories of peace that implicitly undergird this optimism are notably shallow constructs.
Mearsheimer asserted that “the prospect of major crises, even wars, in Europe is likely to increase dramatically now that the Cold War is receding into history.”
Thirty-five years later, it is evident that the post-Cold War years proved to be unkind to those wishing to maintain the Western Alliance. But there is more at issue than just the fate of NATO. It is important to note that what bound the West together was not simply pragmatic strategic objectives. It was not merely a defense pact. Nor was the West in the post-1945 era to be equated with an American imperium. There was also a common moral and intellectual legacy—a system of values that transcended national borders and which not even Hitler or Stalin could entirely undermine and disrupt.
The West or Western civilization always possessed an internally diverse culture and yet it always demonstrated a capacity to renew itself. Throughout history it has been plagued by divisions such as division of the Roman Empire into Western and Eastern halves. This was followed by the break-up of the Christian Church into a Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox wing. The subsequent split in Western Christianity at the time of the Reformation led to centuries of bloody conflict between Protestant and Catholic. The terrible toll taken by the bloody ideological conflicts of the 20th century led numerous commentators to hint darkly about the imminent decline of Western civilization. Yet somehow the West and the historical legacy it embodied survived.
Can we be optimistic that the West still possesses the regenerative powers needed to contain the corrosive effects of the divisions it has inflicted on itself? It can if enough people in positions of influence understand that the current predicament facing the West is not simply geopolitical but also cultural. Every Western society is confronted by an internal cultural conflict between those who wish to distance society from its civilizational legacy and those who wish to renew it. Winning this conflict against the naysayers of the legacy Western culture is the pre-requisite for giving meaning to the idea of the West in the 21st century.
Having lost its way, the West still has a chance to retrace its steps and learn to live with itself. If not, China and others are waiting in the wings.