Marine Le Pen stands poised to win the 2027 presidential election in France unless the courts disqualify her from running, new polling published just hours before a court hearing to determine her future has shown.
On Sunday, a new Ifop survey for Le Journal du Dimanche showed Le Pen leading in every run-off scenario, making her the undeniable frontrunner and obvious candidate of the right-wing National Rally.
A Parisian court is set to rule Monday on whether Le Pen, accused alongside 26 others in the long-running “parliamentary assistants” case, will be sentenced to a five-year ban from holding public office, with immediate execution even pending appeal.
She is also facing possible prison time and a fine of up to €300,000.
The charges stem from allegations that MEPs from her party misused EU funds — an accusation Le Pen strongly contests.
If found ineligible, Le Pen’s absence from the ballot would be seismic, not only for her party but for the French electorate, who consistently place her ahead of any rival. The Ifop poll shows Le Pen capturing between 34 percent and 37 percent of first-round voting intentions, beating all likely centrist and left-wing candidates.
The timing and potential political implications of the ruling draw parallels to recent scenes in Romania, where Calin Georgescu — another populist frontrunner — was arrested and ultimately barred from standing in a re-run of the presidential election after initially winning the first round. His candidacy was nullified by the Romanian electoral commission, with the decision upheld by the constitutional court, sparking uproar over the role of judicial power in democratic elections.
Should the French court follow a similar path, Le Pen’s supporters — and perhaps many undecided voters — will likely view this as yet another case of overreach by an increasingly politicized judiciary.
Le Pen’s dominance isn’t marginal. Against an array of political opponents, she leads former Macron-appointed prime ministers Édouard Philippe (20–25 percent) and Gabriel Attal (around 20 percent), as well as far-left grandee Jean-Luc Mélenchon (12–13 percent), with ease.
She appears to be far more palatable to the wider electorate than others on the nationalist right, including Reconquête leader Éric Zemmour, who is polling at around 5-6 percent.
It is far from clear where votes for Le Pen would be redistributed in the event she were barred from holding public office, whether another National Rally politician could fill her shoes or if centrist politicians would benefit significantly.
The French firebrand nationalist cut a defiant figure in front of reporters last week, telling journalists, “If the court were to pronounce a sentence of ineligibility with provisional execution against me, it would have no influence on our ability to defend the French people and to censure the government if necessary, including to provoke new legislative elections.”
The 56-year-old has spent decades building her platform to amass broader electoral support, rebranding her father’s National Front, and has failed on three previous occasions to take residence in the Élysée Palace.
Monday’s hearing is expected to begin at 10 a.m., where she will learn if she will have a fourth opportunity — without question her best chance to date — to finally taste victory in the presidential race.