On Tuesday the United States and Iran increased the militaristic rhetoric against each other, with some reports claiming that Tehran is preparing for preemptive long-range ballistic missile strikes against a joint U.S. and U.K. air base of Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean. What appears to have kicked off the recent quarrel was some tough words by President Donald Trump who ordered Tehran to enter into a new nuclear deal with Washington, part of his ongoing agenda of global denuclearization. Notably, Trump was unhappy with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, withdrew from it during his first term in office, and has since been seeking to enact a new agreement.
“If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing,” Trump said in a telephone interview with NBC Sunday. “It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before … There’s a chance that if they don’t make a deal, that I will do secondary tariffs on them like I did four years ago.”
Trump’s warning during the NBC interview followed the delivery of a his official letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which urged direct negotiations for a new nuclear deal. Iran however rejected the proposal due to a breakdown in trust stemming from Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and his subsequent ‘maximum pressure’ policy, characterized by stiff financial sanctions.
Notably, this 2015 ‘Iran nuclear deal’ involved President Barack Obama shipping $400 million in cash on pallets to Tehran.
“No other transaction in U.S. history has involved a planeload of bills, say diplomatic historians, raising questions about payment timed to help free prisoners,” the Times of Israel said in 2016.
“Iran state TV announced an $80 million bounty for President Trump’s head on Sunday following the targeting strike of Qassam Soleimani despite the fact the nation is suffering under crippling sanctions,” Jamie White said in an article on Infowars in 2020. “Given the crushing U.S. economic sanctions bearing down on Iran, how is the Islamic nation able to offer such a large reward for Trump’s assassination? The answer may lie in the $1.7 billion payment former President Obama sent to Iran, including $400 million delivered on pallets in a C-130 as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) in 2015. The ‘compromise’ payment was made as part of the $150 billion sanction relief to Iran for the nuclear deal despite the fact both Obama and former Secretary of State John Kerry outright admitted some of that money would be used to fund terrorism.”
A decade on, no deal has been signed and tensions are beginning to mount, however there are signs of a peaceful path forward.
“Despite rejecting direct talks, Iran has indicated a willingness to engage in indirect negotiations, signaling a potential path forward, though tensions remain high,” Newsweek said Monday.
Currently however, the Islamic nation is preparing for battle, at least in rhetoric.
On Monday Khamenei said that Tehran would respond “decisively and immediately” to any threat issued by the U.S.
On Sunday it was reported that the Islamic nation’s missiles are loaded onto launchers and are ready for use, followed by a direct threat to the U.S. and its allies.
#EXCLUSIVE
— Tehran Times (@TehranTimes79) March 30, 2025
Information received by the Tehran Times indicates that Iran's missiles are loaded onto launchers in all underground missile cities and are ready for launch.
Opening the Pandora's box will come at a heavy cost for the U.S. government and its allies. pic.twitter.com/IR6YsxclYP
Interestingly, Trump’s threat of bombing appears to have been made with the intent that the political fallout will result in an Iran which complies with Trump’s greater anti-nuclear-proliferation and denuclearization agenda. It indicates that the Trump administration is willing to expend all options, including military options, to achieve this objective.
Iran has not backed down, however. Political analyst Dominic Michael Tripi reported on Tuesday that the target Iran’s missiles may strike is the joint U.S. / U.K. military base at Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean.
BREAKING: Iran preparing for preemptive long-range ballistic missile strike on US-UK air base.
— Dominic Michael Tripi (@DMichaelTripi) April 1, 2025
Diego Garcia, it’s a base on an island in the Indian Ocean.
— Dominic Michael Tripi (@DMichaelTripi) April 1, 2025
“This is a tightrope Khamenei will increasingly be forced to walk as he plays for time and engages in nuclear escalation,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said. “U.S. policy should be to keep Khamenei off balance.”
On Tuesday Iran reportedly seized two foreign oil tankers it accused of smuggling diesel fuel, adding further tension to the situation.
Russia, which is generally allied with Iran, has condemned the potential U.S. strikes against Iran.
“Threats are indeed being heard, ultimatums are also being heard,” Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told the Russian journal “International Affairs” in an interview, extracts of which were published on Tuesday and reported by Reuters. “We consider such methods inappropriate, we condemn them, we consider them a way for (the U.S.) to impose its own will on the Iranian side.”
With Washington negotiating peace between Moscow and Kiev in the Ukraine war, potential military moves against Tehran could also indicate a strategy of ‘applied tension’ against Russia, via Iran.